Macadamian Blog

Observations from CES

I just got back from CES a couple of days ago. It's a huge show -  I saw a lot of interesting innovations, and a lot of me-too products, but after reviewing my notes, a had a couple of really exciting realizations. First, concepts we've been talking about for 10 years - internet TV, the home media hub, tablets, eReaders, green technology for the home, and home automation, are finally here, and they are already being commoditized. Second, because the hardware is being commoditized so quickly, product vendors who lead with design will quickly emerge as the victors.

The Connected Home

As my colleague Frederic Boulanger says, we drastically overestimate the impact of technologies in the short term, and drastically underestimate them in the long run. Ten years ago, we dreamed of the connected home - internet-enabled fridges, home automation systems that turned our furnaces on an hour before we got home from work, and we'd dump our cable company for on-demand TV. Then seemingly, nothing happened. The technology was too expensive, too fragmented, and too immature. Fast forward to 2011, and every major electronics manufacturer has a Smart TV and is battling to control your living room and home media network. GE and Panasonic have very compelling and complete green visions for the home. The major security and lock manufacturers like Schlage are brining out home automation and security systems that let you control and watch every entry point in your house from a web portal. These technologies have been with us for years, but the difference is these companies have the channel relationships, the reach, the brand, and the familiar hardware (TVs, IP-enabled door locks, Wi-FI enabled ovens) to make it all a mainstream reality. 

The User Experience, and Software, is Everything

What really struck me was how quickly technologies like eReaders and Tablets became commodities. I stopped counting after seeing twenty different Android tablets, from small and large players alike, and all were remarkably similar. The tablet market is already playing out in predictable ways - price wars, and feature wars. Both are non-starters. The Android OS has made it relatively easy to release a tablet or smartphone, but it's made it easy for your competitors too. Tablet manufacturers are going to have to step it up with compelling software experience design, and compelling form factors. Or, they will have to carve out a niche that no-one else is serving. Or, ideally both. 

We're entering the Age of Software

Ok, that's maybe a bit hokey, but if you think software is ubiquitous now, just wait. The amount of software that will be written in the next ten years will be staggering. Did you think Kenmore would one day be a software company? Embedded, smartphone, tablet, and web software to control appliance energy use, or remote monitor their appliances, will play a key role in how they innovate in the next few years. The amount of software intelligence you will be able to put in a digital photo frame will be impressive in retrospect. The next few years will be exciting indeed.